M5 model tree based modelling of reference evapotranspiration   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mahesh Pal  Surinder Deswal 《水文研究》2009,23(10):1437-1443

This paper investigates the potential of M5 model tree based regression approach to model daily reference evapotranspiration using climatic data of Davis station maintained by California irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Four inputs including solar radiation, average air temperature, average relative humidity, and average wind speed whereas reference evapotranspiration calculated using a relation provided by the CIMIS was used as output. To compare the performance of M5 model tree in predicting the reference evapotranspiration, FAO–56 Penman–Monteith equation and calibrated Hargreaves–Samani relation was used. A comparison of results suggests that M5 model tree approach works well in comparison to both FAO–56 and calibrated Hargreaves–Samani relations. To judge the generalization capability of M5 model tree approach, model created by using the Davis data set was tested with the datasets of four different sites. Results from this part of the study suggest that M5 model tree could successfully be employed in modeling the reference evapotranspiration. Further, sensitivity analysis with M5 model tree approach suggests the suitability of solar radiation, average air temperature, average relative humidity, and average wind speed as input parameters to model the reference evapotranspiration Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

东半球空间环境地基综合监测子午链简介     

王赤  冯学尚  万卫星  腾云田  窦贤康  史建魁  袁庆智 《国际地震动态》2009,(6):32-38

“东半球空间环境地基综合监测子午链”（简称子午工程）是我国空间科学领域开工建设的第一个国家重大基础设施项目。子午工程利用沿东半球120°E子午线附近和北纬30°N附近的15个综合性观测台站,运用无线电、地磁、光学和探空火箭等多种探测手段,连续监测地球表面20—30km以上到几百公里的中高层大气、电离层和磁层,以及十几个地球半径以外的行星际的空间环境参数。它将为我国各类用户提供完整、连续、可靠的多学科、多层次的空间环境地基综合监测数据。子午工程总投资1．67亿元,建设期3年,子午工程整体科学寿命预计超过11年。  相似文献   

Snow water equivalent over Eurasia in the next 50 years projected by aggregated CMIP3 models     

LiJuan M  Yong Luo  DaHe Qin 《寒旱区科学》2012,4(2):0093-0106

Based on remote sensing snow water equivalent (SWE) data, the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attending the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) was first evaluated by computing the different percentage, spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation of biases during 1979–2000. Then, the diagnosed ten models that performed better simulation in Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in 2002–2060. Results show that SWE will decrease significantly for Eurasia as a whole in the next 50 years. Spatially, significant decreasing trends dominate Eurasia except for significant increase in the northeastern part. Seasonally, decreasing proportion will be greatest in summer indicating that snow cover in warmer seasons is more sensitive to climate warming. However, absolute decreasing trends are not the greatest in winter, but in spring. This is caused by the greater magnitude of negative trends, but smaller positive trends in spring than in winter. The changing characteristics of increasing in eastern Eurasia and decreasing in western Eurasia and over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau favor the viewpoint that there will be more rainfall in North China and less in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Additionally, the decreasing rate and extent with significant decreasing trends under SRES A2 are greater than those under SRES B1, indicating that the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) will speed up the decreasing rate of snow cover both temporally and spatially. It is crucial to control the discharge of GHG emissions for mitigating the disappearance of snow cover over Eurasia.  相似文献   

Recent Publications     

《The Journal of geography》2012,111(1):33-44

Abstract

A call for combining the strengths of geographic education with environmental education to produce an ‘education for sustainability’ addresses local problems for sustainable development. A place-based approach encourages civic responsibility among students. Using service-learning to extend education beyond the classroom in this case study connected students with local clients in a watershed-based initiative. Theoretical underpinnings of service-learning for geographic education are discussed, and the case study is viewed from instructor, student, and client perspectives to identify successful outcomes and provide suggestions for those who might adopt service-learning for the first time.  相似文献   

退耕还林还草工程对中国北方农牧交错区土地利用/覆被变化的影响——以科尔沁左翼后旗为例   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

周德成  赵淑清  朱超 《地理科学》2012,(4):442-449

以北方农牧交错区-科尔沁左翼后旗为例,利用卫星遥感技术获取1980~2010年土地利用/覆被信息,通过统计模型重建土地利用/覆被及景观格局变化过程,综合评价二者动态及退耕还林还草等生态恢复工程的影响。研究区土地整体处于准平衡态势,各地类双向转换较频繁;耕地与草地的变化对区域土地利用/覆被及景观格局变化起支配作用;退耕还林还草等生态恢复工程逆转了天然植被(包括草地与林地)整体减少及耕地与未利用地增加的局面,使各景观破碎化程度有所缓解,这可能有利于生态环境的改善。  相似文献   

BCC_CSM1.1对10年尺度全球及区域温度的预测研究   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

高峰  辛晓歌  吴统文 《大气科学》2012,36(6):1165-1179

近期10～30年时间尺度的年代际预测是第五次耦合模式国际比较计划(CMIP5)重要内容之一。按照CMIP5试验要求, 国家气候中心利用气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1完成并提交了年代际试验结果。本文评估了该模式年代际试验对10年尺度全球及区域地表温度的预测能力, 并通过与20世纪历史气候模拟试验的对比分析, 研究模式模拟对海洋初始观测状态的依赖程度。分析结果表明:(1)在有、无海洋初始化条件下, 模式均能模拟出1960～2005年间全球10年平均实测地表温度的变暖趋势, 但在有海洋初始化条件下, 可以明显减小BCC_CSM1.1模式模拟的全球升温趋势, 使得年代际试验比历史试验的结果更接近观测值。这一特点在观测资料相对丰富的南北纬50°以内地区更为显著。(2)在年代际试验预测前期, 通过Nudging方法, 利用SODA再分析海洋温度资料对模式进行初始化, 经过前期8～12月的协调后, 模式预测的第1年南北纬50°范围海洋、陆面的平均地表气温接近于观测值(CRUTEM3, HadSST2)。由于模式初值SODA再分析SST资料与HadSST2观测值存在明显的全球大洋系统暖偏差以及模式本身系统偏差的影响, 年代际试验模拟的地表气温在2～7年之内, 从观测SST状态逐渐恢复到模式系统本身状态。在同组Decadal试验中, 陆面和海洋恢复调整的时间长度几乎一致。(3) 从10年平均气候异常在区域尺度上的预报技巧来看, 有、无海洋初始同化对预测结果影响不大, 高预测技巧区主要分布在南半球印度洋中高纬度、热带西太平洋以及热带大西洋区域。(4)SST变化与下垫面热通量密切相关, 在热带和副热带海洋区域, 长波辐射和感热通量是影响10年时间尺度SST变化较大的物理量, 在中高纬度海洋, 洋面温度变化主要受潜热通量的影响相对较大。  相似文献   

Projected Changes in Asian Summer Monsoon in RCP Scenarios of CMIP5   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

BAO Qing 《大气和海洋科学快报》2012,5(1):43-48

Responses of the Asian Summer Monsoon(ASM) in future projections have been studied based on two core future projections of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS_s2(the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model).The projected changes of the ASM in climatological mean and interannual variability were respectively reported.Both the South Asian Summer Monsoon(SASM) and the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM) were intensified in their climatology,featuring increased monsoon precipitation and an enhanced monsoon lower-level westerly jet flow.Accordingly,the amplitude of the annual cycle of rainfall over East Asia(EA) is enhanced,thereby indicating a more abrupt monsoon onset.After the EA monsoon onset,the EASM marched farther northward in the future scenarios than in the historical runs.In the interannual variability,the leading pattern of the EASM,defined by the first multi-variable EOF analysis over EA,explains more of the total variances in the warmest future scenario,specifically,Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP8.5).Also,the correlation coefficients analysis suggests that the relationship between the EASM interannual variations and ENSO was significantly strengthened in the future projections,which may indicate improved predictability of the EASM interannual variations.  相似文献   

丹江口水库老灌河流域地下水水化学特征     

代贞伟  王磊  伏永朋  章昱  张方亮  董芯岑  贺小黑 《中国地质调查》2019,6(5):43-49

作为南水北调中线工程的水源地,丹江口水库地下水的水质是影响南水北调工程建设的重要因素。为了确保丹江口水库一库清水送北京,对水库老灌河流域进行地下水采样、统计和分析,研究地下水的水化学特征,结果表明: 丹江口老灌河流域地下水偏弱碱性,属于低矿化水,Ca²⁺为优势阳离子,$HCO_3^-$为优势阴离子; 除$NO_3^-$外,该区主要离子浓度均符合我国及世界卫生组织推荐的饮用水标准; 丰水期和枯水期地下水的水化学类型均为Ca-Mg-HCO₃型和Ca-HCO₃型,水化学过程以风化-溶滤作用为主; 地下水$NO_3^-$超标13%~17%,丰水期部分区域出现Cl^-型水化学类型。季节变化对老灌河流域地下水的水化学类型空间分布影响较小,地下水水质受农业、养殖业、工业遗留废渣及生活污水等影响。  相似文献   

Evolution trend of the water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project in China     

HU Zun-fang  KANG Feng-xin  ZOU An-de  YU Lin-song  LI Yang  TIAN Tong-liang  KANG Gui-ling 《地下水科学与工程》2019,(4):333-339

To investigate the evolution trend of water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project operation as well as to ensure the safe usage of the water receiving areas, water samples were collected and determined before and after water delivery in different hydrological seasons. Then, comprehensive pollution index method, comprehensive nutrition state index method and health risk assessment model were utilized to evaluate the quality, nutrition, and health risk of Dongping Lake water. Results showed that the quality of Dongping Lake water still met level Ⅲ (light pollution) no matter before or after water delivery. The nutrition state was improved from light eutropher before water delivery to mesotropher after water delivery. The health risk level was reduced from high-medium before water delivery to medium level after water delivery. In summary, the operation of the eastern route of South-North Water Transfer Project is beneficial for water environment improvement of Dongping Lake.  相似文献   

青藏高原东北侧冰雹微物理过程模拟研究   总被引：31，自引：15，他引：16  

康凤琴  张强  渠永兴  冀兰芝  郭学良 《高原气象》2004,23(6):735-742

以青藏高原东北侧及毗邻地区诱发冰雹灾害的东移短小切变线天气过程为研究背景,采用中国科学院大气物理研究所三维冰雹云分档模式,用MM5V3中尺度气象模式提供冰雹云模拟研究所需的环境大气状况,模拟研究了冰雹形成和增长的微物理过程。结果表明：模式再现了当时冰雹、大风及暴雨的实况;中尺度水分和动力条件是冰雹形成和增长的重要因素,它们决定了冰雹云的强度和冰雹的大小;冰雹形成和增长过程中的微物理过程决定了冰雹云的消亡,冰雹在空中形成的潜热释放延长了降雹的时间;云中冰雹发生、增长的主要区域和云内上升气流配合良好,是防雹消雹的主要范围。  相似文献